TapeEUR/USD1.0842+0.18%GBP/USD1.2731-0.09%USD/JPY152.36+0.24%XAU/USD2,412.60+0.61%DXY104.28-0.14%US10Y4.31%+3bpWTI78.42-0.53%BTC/USD61,180+1.42%Illustrative snapshot · Wednesday, 5 August 2026
Wednesday, 5 August 2026London edition · All times GMT
PipDigestThe five-minute forex issue
Issue #248Subscribe free
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The board, in one screen

Everything the desk checks before writing the issue: the FX board, the yields that actually drive it, and where each central bank sits relative to what the market is pricing. Snapshot taken for issue #248, Wednesday, 5 August 2026. All figures are illustrative.

8Central banks tracked
6Last move was a cut
1Last move was a hike
1On hold

The tape

Snapshot at filing
SymbolLastChange
EUR/USD1.0842+0.18%
GBP/USD1.2731-0.09%
USD/JPY152.36+0.24%
XAU/USD2,412.60+0.61%
DXY104.28-0.14%
US10Y4.31%+3bp
WTI78.42-0.53%
BTC/USD61,180+1.42%

FX board

Session range & driver
PairLastChangeSession rangeWhat is driving it
EUR/USD1.0842+0.18%1.0810 – 1.0848ECB repricing on sticky core CPI
GBP/USD1.2731-0.09%1.2718 – 1.2756Services PMI miss into the BoE
USD/JPY152.36+0.24%152.10 – 152.44Carry, capped by intervention risk
USD/CHF0.8804-0.11%0.8791 – 0.8822Haven demand tracking gold
AUD/USD0.6612+0.21%0.6588 – 0.6619Iron ore firmer, China sentiment soft
USD/CAD1.3684-0.14%1.3671 – 1.3708Crude steady, BoC cut half priced
EUR/GBP0.8516+0.27%0.8489 – 0.8519Euro leading the European complex
XAU/USD2,412.60+0.61%2,396 – 2,414Real yields easing, haven bid
DXY104.28-0.14%104.22 – 104.51Cumulative soft US labour data

Government yields

The FX market's real driver
InstrumentLevel1D1WDesk note
US 2-year4.02%-2bp-11bpThe front end is doing all the work in the dollar's decline.
US 10-year4.31%+3bp-4bpRangebound. A break of 4.25% would uncap gold and the euro.
US 10-year real1.86%-2bp-9bpThe single most reliable driver of the gold breakout.
Germany 10-year2.41%+1bp+6bpSticky core CPI has lifted Bunds' yield with the ECB repricing.
UK 10-year gilt4.08%-3bp-7bpOutperforming on the soft services PMI ahead of the BoE.
Japan 10-year1.06%+1bp+3bpCreeping higher; the differential still favours the dollar.
US 2s10s spread+29bp+5bp+7bpBull steepening — the classic pre-easing curve shape.
Read the front end, not the headline. Most retail traders watch the dollar index and the 10-year. The move that actually decides EUR/USD right now is in the US 2-year, which has shed eleven basis points in a week on second-tier labour data. When the front end leads and the long end lags, the curve steepens — and a bull-steepening curve has been a reliable dollar-negative signal in every easing cycle since 2007.

Central bank policy rates

And what is priced
Central bankRegionPolicy rateLast moveNext meetingMarket pricing
Federal ReserveUnited States5.00–5.25%Cut 25bp · Jun 202617 Sep 2026≈76% priced for a 25bp cut
European Central BankEuro area3.25%Cut 25bp · May 202614 Aug 2026Hold expected; one further cut by year-end
Bank of EnglandUnited Kingdom4.25%Cut 25bp · Apr 20267 Aug 2026Hold, with a two-sided vote split
Bank of JapanJapan0.50%Hike 25bp · Mar 202619 Sep 2026Roughly a third priced for a further hike
Swiss National BankSwitzerland1.00%Cut 25bp · Jun 202624 Sep 2026Hold; franc strength the swing factor
Bank of CanadaCanada4.00%Cut 25bp · Jul 20269 Sep 2026Cut roughly half priced
Reserve Bank of AustraliaAustralia4.35%Hold · Aug 20261 Sep 2026No move expected before November
Reserve Bank of New ZealandNew Zealand4.75%Cut 25bp · Jul 202626 Aug 2026Further easing largely priced

What reprices the board next

Full calendar
12:30

Initial Jobless Claims

Wed 5 AugUSDMediumf/c 232K · prev 235K

A weekly count of new unemployment-benefit filings. Fewer claims signal a tight labour market and support the dollar; a jump higher feeds rate-cut bets.

14:00

ISM Services PMI

Wed 5 AugUSDHighf/c 51.4 · prev 50.8

A survey of purchasing managers in the dominant US services sector. Above 50 means expansion. A soft read reinforces the easing narrative and pressures the dollar.

12:30

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Thu 6 AugUSDHighf/c 175K · prev 206K

The headline US jobs number — the month's marquee release. It sets the tone for Fed expectations and can move every major pair, gold and yields in seconds.

12:30

Average Hourly Earnings

Thu 6 AugUSDHighf/c 0.3% m/m · prev 0.4% m/m

The wage component of the jobs report. Firm wages stoke inflation worries and lift yields; cooler wages cement the case for cuts, even if headline jobs beat.

11:00

BoE Interest Rate Decision

Fri 7 AugGBPHighf/c Hold · prev Hold

The Bank of England's rate verdict plus guidance. A hawkish hold lifts sterling; any dovish tilt on the path of cuts sends cable lower.

How to use this page. The board is a starting point, not a trade. Check the yield table before you take a view on a dollar pair, check the policy-rate table before you assume a central bank is done, and check the calendar before you size anything. Prices here are illustrative and set at the time of filing — they are not a live feed.

Check the primary sourceFRED 10-year Treasury constant maturity · US Treasury daily yield curve · ECB euro reference rates · Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary

Where these numbers come from

6 primary sources

Nothing on this board is scraped from a black box. These are the publisher-of-record pages the desk reads each morning — screenshotted here, and linked so you can pull the same numbers yourself.

The BLS Employment Situation release page
The BLS Employment Situation release pageNonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, first-hand.bls.gov
FRED's 10-year Treasury constant maturity series
FRED's 10-year Treasury constant maturity seriesThe benchmark US yield the dollar and gold trade against.fred.stlouisfed.org
The US Treasury daily yield curve page
The US Treasury daily yield curve pageThe full curve, published daily — where the front end sits versus the long end.home.treasury.gov
The ECB euro foreign-exchange reference rates page
The ECB euro foreign-exchange reference rates pageThe official daily euro fixings used to sanity-check an FX quote.ecb.europa.eu
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary page
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary pageThe MPC vote split and guidance that moves sterling on decision day.bankofengland.co.uk
The BIS Triennial Survey of FX turnover
The BIS Triennial Survey of FX turnoverThe reference dataset for how big the FX market actually is, by pair and venue.bis.org