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RekamanEUR/USD1.0842+0.18%GBP/USD1.2731-0.09%USD/JPY152.36+0.24%XAU/USD2,412.60+0.61%DXY104.28-0.14%US10Y4.31%+3bpWTI78.42-0.53%BTC/USD61,180+1.42%Snapshot ilustratif ·
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Edisi #248Berlangganan Gratis
Beranda/Pasar
Dashboard Kurs

Papan, dalam satu layar

Semua yang diperiksa redaksi sebelum menulis edisi: papan FX, imbal hasil yang benar-benar mendorongnya, dan posisi setiap bank sentral relatif terhadap harga pasar. Cuplikan diambil untuk edisi #248, Wednesday, 5 August 2026. Semua angka bersifat ilustratif.

8Bank Sentral yang Dipantau
6Pergerakan terakhir adalah pemotongan
1Pergerakan terakhir adalah kenaikan
1Ditunda

Data pasar

Cuplikan Saat Rilis
SimbolTerakhirPerubahan
EUR/USD1.0842+0.18%
GBP/USD1.2731-0.09%
USD/JPY152.36+0.24%
XAU/USD2,412.60+0.61%
DXY104.28-0.14%
US10Y4.31%+3bp
WTI78.42-0.53%
BTC/USD61,180+1.42%

Papan FX

Rentang Sesi & Penggerak
PasanganTerakhirPerubahanRentang SesiApa pemicunya
EUR/USD1.0842+0.18%1.0810 – 1.0848ECB repricing on sticky core CPI
GBP/USD1.2731-0.09%1.2718 – 1.2756Services PMI miss into the BoE
USD/JPY152.36+0.24%152.10 – 152.44Carry, capped by intervention risk
USD/CHF0.8804-0.11%0.8791 – 0.8822Haven demand tracking gold
AUD/USD0.6612+0.21%0.6588 – 0.6619Iron ore firmer, China sentiment soft
USD/CAD1.3684-0.14%1.3671 – 1.3708Crude steady, BoC cut half priced
EUR/GBP0.8516+0.27%0.8489 – 0.8519Euro leading the European complex
XAU/USD2,412.60+0.61%2,396 – 2,414Real yields easing, haven bid
DXY104.28-0.14%104.22 – 104.51Cumulative soft US labour data

Imbal hasil pemerintah

Penggerak utama pasar FX
InstrumenLevel1D1WCatatan Redaksi
US 2-year4.02%-2bp-11bpThe front end is doing all the work in the dollar's decline.
US 10-year4.31%+3bp-4bpRangebound. A break of 4.25% would uncap gold and the euro.
US 10-year real1.86%-2bp-9bpThe single most reliable driver of the gold breakout.
Germany 10-year2.41%+1bp+6bpSticky core CPI has lifted Bunds' yield with the ECB repricing.
UK 10-year gilt4.08%-3bp-7bpOutperforming on the soft services PMI ahead of the BoE.
Japan 10-year1.06%+1bp+3bpCreeping higher; the differential still favours the dollar.
US 2s10s spread+29bp+5bp+7bpBull steepening — the classic pre-easing curve shape.
Baca bagian inti, bukan sekadar judul. Sebagian besar trader retail mengamati indeks dolar dan obligasi 10 tahun. Pergerakan yang benar-benar menentukan EUR/USD saat ini ada pada obligasi 2 tahun AS, yang telah kehilangan sebelas basis poin dalam seminggu karena data tenaga kerja lapis kedua. Ketika front end memimpin dan long end tertinggal, kurva menanjak — dan kurva bull-steepening telah menjadi sinyal negatif dolar yang andal dalam setiap siklus pelonggaran sejak 2007.

Suku Bunga Kebijakan Bank Sentral

Dan yang dihargakan
Bank SentralWilayahSuku bunga kebijakanPergerakan TerakhirRapat berikutnyaHarga pasar
Federal ReserveUnited States5.00–5.25%Cut 25bp · Jun 202617 Sep 2026≈76% priced for a 25bp cut
European Central BankEuro area3.25%Cut 25bp · May 202614 Aug 2026Hold expected; one further cut by year-end
Bank of EnglandUnited Kingdom4.25%Cut 25bp · Apr 20267 Aug 2026Hold, with a two-sided vote split
Bank of JapanJapan0.50%Hike 25bp · Mar 202619 Sep 2026Roughly a third priced for a further hike
Swiss National BankSwitzerland1.00%Cut 25bp · Jun 202624 Sep 2026Hold; franc strength the swing factor
Bank of CanadaCanada4.00%Cut 25bp · Jul 20269 Sep 2026Cut roughly half priced
Reserve Bank of AustraliaAustralia4.35%Hold · Aug 20261 Sep 2026No move expected before November
Reserve Bank of New ZealandNew Zealand4.75%Cut 25bp · Jul 202626 Aug 2026Further easing largely priced

Apa yang akan menggerakkan pasar selanjutnya

Kalender lengkap
12:30

Initial Jobless Claims

Wed 5 AugUSDMediumf/c 232K · sebelumnya 235K

A weekly count of new unemployment-benefit filings. Fewer claims signal a tight labour market and support the dollar; a jump higher feeds rate-cut bets.

14:00

ISM Services PMI

Wed 5 AugUSDHighf/c 51.4 · sebelumnya 50.8

A survey of purchasing managers in the dominant US services sector. Above 50 means expansion. A soft read reinforces the easing narrative and pressures the dollar.

12:30

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Thu 6 AugUSDHighf/c 175K · sebelumnya 206K

The headline US jobs number — the month's marquee release. It sets the tone for Fed expectations and can move every major pair, gold and yields in seconds.

12:30

Average Hourly Earnings

Thu 6 AugUSDHighf/c 0.3% m/m · sebelumnya 0.4% m/m

The wage component of the jobs report. Firm wages stoke inflation worries and lift yields; cooler wages cement the case for cuts, even if headline jobs beat.

11:00

BoE Interest Rate Decision

Fri 7 AugGBPHighf/c Hold · sebelumnya Hold

The Bank of England's rate verdict plus guidance. A hawkish hold lifts sterling; any dovish tilt on the path of cuts sends cable lower.

Cara menggunakan halaman ini. Papan ini adalah titik awal, bukan perdagangan. Periksa tabel imbal hasil sebelum Anda mengambil pandangan tentang pasangan dolar, periksa tabel suku bunga kebijakan sebelum Anda berasumsi bank sentral telah selesai, dan periksa kalender sebelum Anda menentukan ukuran apa pun. Harga di sini adalah ilustratif dan ditetapkan pada saat rilis — ini bukan umpan langsung.

Periksa Sumber UtamaFRED Treasury 10-tahun jatuh tempo konstan · Kurva imbal hasil harian Treasury AS · Kurs referensi euro ECB · Ringkasan Kebijakan Moneter Bank of England

Where these numbers come from

6 sumber utama

Nothing on this board is scraped from a black box. These are the publisher-of-record pages the desk reads each morning — screenshotted here, and linked so you can pull the same numbers yourself.

The BLS Employment Situation release page
The BLS Employment Situation release pageNonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, first-hand.bls.gov
FRED's 10-year Treasury constant maturity series
FRED's 10-year Treasury constant maturity seriesThe benchmark US yield the dollar and gold trade against.fred.stlouisfed.org
The US Treasury daily yield curve page
The US Treasury daily yield curve pageThe full curve, published daily — where the front end sits versus the long end.home.treasury.gov
The ECB euro foreign-exchange reference rates page
The ECB euro foreign-exchange reference rates pageThe official daily euro fixings used to sanity-check an FX quote.ecb.europa.eu
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary page
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary pageThe MPC vote split and guidance that moves sterling on decision day.bankofengland.co.uk
The BIS Triennial Survey of FX turnover
The BIS Triennial Survey of FX turnoverThe reference dataset for how big the FX market actually is, by pair and venue.bis.org