El tablero, en una pantalla
Todo lo que la mesa verifica antes de redactar el número: el panel FX, los rendimientos que lo impulsan y la posición de cada banco central respecto a lo que el mercado descuenta. Instantánea tomada para el número #248, Wednesday, 5 August 2026. Todas las cifras son ilustrativas.
El mercado
Instantánea al momento de la publicación| Símbolo | Último | Cambio |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.0842 | +0.18% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2731 | -0.09% |
| USD/JPY | 152.36 | +0.24% |
| XAU/USD | 2,412.60 | +0.61% |
| DXY | 104.28 | -0.14% |
| US10Y | 4.31% | +3bp |
| WTI | 78.42 | -0.53% |
| BTC/USD | 61,180 | +1.42% |
Panel FX
Rango de sesión e impulsor| Par | Último | Cambio | Rango de sesión | Qué lo impulsa |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.0842 | +0.18% | 1.0810 – 1.0848 | ECB repricing on sticky core CPI |
| GBP/USD | 1.2731 | -0.09% | 1.2718 – 1.2756 | Services PMI miss into the BoE |
| USD/JPY | 152.36 | +0.24% | 152.10 – 152.44 | Carry, capped by intervention risk |
| USD/CHF | 0.8804 | -0.11% | 0.8791 – 0.8822 | Haven demand tracking gold |
| AUD/USD | 0.6612 | +0.21% | 0.6588 – 0.6619 | Iron ore firmer, China sentiment soft |
| USD/CAD | 1.3684 | -0.14% | 1.3671 – 1.3708 | Crude steady, BoC cut half priced |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8516 | +0.27% | 0.8489 – 0.8519 | Euro leading the European complex |
| XAU/USD | 2,412.60 | +0.61% | 2,396 – 2,414 | Real yields easing, haven bid |
| DXY | 104.28 | -0.14% | 104.22 – 104.51 | Cumulative soft US labour data |
Rendimientos gubernamentales
El verdadero motor del mercado FX| Instrumento | Nivel | 1D | 1W | Nota de la mesa |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 2-year | 4.02% | -2bp | -11bp | The front end is doing all the work in the dollar's decline. |
| US 10-year | 4.31% | +3bp | -4bp | Rangebound. A break of 4.25% would uncap gold and the euro. |
| US 10-year real | 1.86% | -2bp | -9bp | The single most reliable driver of the gold breakout. |
| Germany 10-year | 2.41% | +1bp | +6bp | Sticky core CPI has lifted Bunds' yield with the ECB repricing. |
| UK 10-year gilt | 4.08% | -3bp | -7bp | Outperforming on the soft services PMI ahead of the BoE. |
| Japan 10-year | 1.06% | +1bp | +3bp | Creeping higher; the differential still favours the dollar. |
| US 2s10s spread | +29bp | +5bp | +7bp | Bull steepening — the classic pre-easing curve shape. |
Tipos de interés de bancos centrales
Y lo cotizado| Banco central | Región | Tipo oficial | Último movimiento | Próxima reunión | Precios de mercado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | United States | 5.00–5.25% | Cut 25bp · Jun 2026 | 17 Sep 2026 | ≈76% priced for a 25bp cut |
| European Central Bank | Euro area | 3.25% | Cut 25bp · May 2026 | 14 Aug 2026 | Hold expected; one further cut by year-end |
| Bank of England | United Kingdom | 4.25% | Cut 25bp · Apr 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | Hold, with a two-sided vote split |
| Bank of Japan | Japan | 0.50% | Hike 25bp · Mar 2026 | 19 Sep 2026 | Roughly a third priced for a further hike |
| Swiss National Bank | Switzerland | 1.00% | Cut 25bp · Jun 2026 | 24 Sep 2026 | Hold; franc strength the swing factor |
| Bank of Canada | Canada | 4.00% | Cut 25bp · Jul 2026 | 9 Sep 2026 | Cut roughly half priced |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | Australia | 4.35% | Hold · Aug 2026 | 1 Sep 2026 | No move expected before November |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand | New Zealand | 4.75% | Cut 25bp · Jul 2026 | 26 Aug 2026 | Further easing largely priced |
Qué reajustará el mercado
Calendario completoInitial Jobless Claims
A weekly count of new unemployment-benefit filings. Fewer claims signal a tight labour market and support the dollar; a jump higher feeds rate-cut bets.
ISM Services PMI
A survey of purchasing managers in the dominant US services sector. Above 50 means expansion. A soft read reinforces the easing narrative and pressures the dollar.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The headline US jobs number — the month's marquee release. It sets the tone for Fed expectations and can move every major pair, gold and yields in seconds.
Average Hourly Earnings
The wage component of the jobs report. Firm wages stoke inflation worries and lift yields; cooler wages cement the case for cuts, even if headline jobs beat.
BoE Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of England's rate verdict plus guidance. A hawkish hold lifts sterling; any dovish tilt on the path of cuts sends cable lower.
Consultar fuente principalFRED Tesoro a 10 años, vencimiento constante · Curva de rendimientos diaria del Tesoro de EE. UU. · Tipos de referencia del euro del BCE · Resumen de Política Monetaria del Banco de Inglaterra
Where these numbers come from
6 Fuentes principalesNothing on this board is scraped from a black box. These are the publisher-of-record pages the desk reads each morning — screenshotted here, and linked so you can pull the same numbers yourself.
The board, summarised, every morning
The issue tells you which of these numbers actually mattered overnight and which are noise.
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