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Edisi #248Berlangganan Gratis
·Edisi #248·4-menit baca·Diajukan

Dolar melemah karena klaim pengangguran meredakan perdebatan pemotongan suku bunga.

EUR/USD merebut kembali 1.0840; emas menekan level tertinggi baru tiga minggu sebelum banjir data AS.

Oleh Tim piphawk.com·Edisi London·5 yang perlu Anda ketahui·Baca sebagai edisi lengkap
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Terbaru

Semua waktu GMT
  • EUREurope

    EUR/USD tags 1.0848, best level since 17 July

    Buying picked up on the London open with 1.0855 the shelf immediately above.

  • GBPEurope

    UK services PMI revised down a tenth to 52.1

    Gilts outperform; cable slips four pips on the release and stabilises at 1.2731.

  • XAUEurope

    Gold prints 2,412.60, a three-week high

    Real yields easing for a third session; 2,400 now acting as pivot support.

  • EUREurope

    German factory orders beat at +1.4% m/m

    Little FX reaction — the euro is trading the ECB repricing, not the hard data.

  • JPYAsia

    USD/JPY pinned at 152.36 through the Tokyo fix

    Desks reporting thinner books above 152.50 on intervention caution.

  • AUDAsia

    Iron ore firms 1.8%; AUD/USD catches a modest bid

    The Aussie recovers to 0.6612 but remains capped by China growth concerns.

  • US10YAsia

    US 10-year holds 4.31% in Asian hours

    Front end still biased lower after Wednesday's soft ADP print.

  • DXYAsia

    Dollar index slips to 104.28, weakest since mid-July

    A break of 104.00 would flip the near-term bias outright bearish for the greenback.

  • CNYAsia

    PBoC fixes the yuan firmer than model estimates

    A quiet signal that Beijing is leaning against further depreciation.

  • WTIUS

    Crude settles down 0.5% at 78.42

    Demand jitters offset a modest inventory draw; CAD unaffected overnight.

Edisi Sebelumnya

Arsip

Lima hal yang menggerakkan pasar

Edisi #248
01Dollar

The greenback is losing the argument one data point at a time

The dollar has now given back every cent of its month-end bounce. DXY printed 104.28 overnight, the weakest level since 16 July, after Wednesday's soft ADP number pulled the front end of the curve lower for a third straight session. There was no single dramatic release behind the move — it is the accumulation of second-tier labour data landing on the cool side of consensus that has done the damage. Rates desks now put roughly three-in-four odds on a September cut, up from just over half a fortnight ago.

Mengapa penting

A dollar index below 104.00 removes the last technical prop under EUR/USD and gold at the same time. Two of the three charts most retail traders watch are keyed off the same line.

See the full rates dashboard
02EUR/USD

1.0855 is the only number that matters today

Euro-dollar has reclaimed the pivot but not the ceiling. Price ground back above 1.0840 in the European morning, undoing Monday's slide and clearing the descending trendline drawn off the mid-July high. The 4-hour RSI sits in the mid-60s with room left, and the MACD histogram flipped positive on Tuesday. What the pair has not done is take out 1.0855, the shelf that has capped every rally since June. Bulls need a close through it; bears need 1.0810 back.

Mengapa penting

Between 1.0810 and 1.0855 there is no edge, only noise. The break decides whether the July range resolves into a 1.0880 measured move or another two weeks of chop.

Full EUR/USD technical read
03Gold

Gold is the cleanest expression of the rate-cut trade

XAU/USD at 2,412 is a three-week high, and it got there without drama. The metal broke the 2,410 flag ceiling on Tuesday and has held above it since, with 2,400 flipping from resistance to pivot support in the textbook role reversal. Easing US real yields have done most of the lifting; a steady drip of Middle East headlines has supplied the rest. The measured move off the flag projects 2,435, with 2,450 the next psychological magnet.

Mengapa penting

Gold usually leads the FX complex when the driver is real yields rather than growth. If the metal holds 2,400 through payrolls, the dollar-bear thesis survives a hot print.

Why 2,435 is the objective
04Yen

The intervention band is doing the Bank of Japan's work for it

USD/JPY sat at 152.36 all session and nobody wanted to find out what is above 152.50. The rate differential still argues for a higher pair, and carry flows have not gone away. But desks have quietly cut position sizes in the last fortnight, and the order book above 152.50 is thin because nobody wants to be the leveraged long that gets run over by the Ministry of Finance. That self-policing is why the pair has traded a 60-pip range for four sessions.

Mengapa penting

A yen intervention does not stay in the yen. The last two episodes dragged every dollar cross with them for 48 hours, which is a risk to your EUR/USD position even if you never trade JPY.

05The day

ISM services at 14:00 GMT is the last read before payrolls

Two US releases stand between the market and Friday's jobs report. Initial jobless claims land at 12:30 GMT with consensus at 232K, and ISM services follows at 14:00 with 51.4 expected against 50.8 prior. Services is the one that carries: it is the dominant sector of the US economy and the survey's employment sub-index has become a de facto payrolls preview. Expect position-squaring into the London fix regardless of the numbers.

Mengapa penting

A soft services print cements the dovish lean and hands EUR/USD the 1.0880 objective before the weekend. A hot one resets the whole week's repricing in an afternoon.

Today's calendar in plain English

Sesi semalam, selengkapnya

Asia → Awal Eropa

Dolar bergerak lebih rendah sepanjang sesi Asia dan awal Eropa karena data ADP hari Rabu yang lemah terus membebani imbal hasil jangka pendek. EUR/USD kembali naik di atas 1.0840, memulihkan kerugian hari Senin, sementara DXY tergelincir ke 104.28 — level terlemahnya sejak pertengahan Juli. Emas menjadi yang paling menonjol, memperpanjang kenaikannya ke 2,412 karena imbal hasil riil mereda dan permintaan safe-haven meningkat menyusul berita utama Timur Tengah yang baru. US 10-year bergerak di dekat 4.31%, sedikit berubah namun cenderung lebih rendah setelah penyesuaian harga dovish pada pertemuan September hari Selasa. USD/JPY bertahan kuat di 152.36, dengan para trader mewaspadai risiko intervensi di atas 152.50 meskipun perbedaan suku bunga membuat pasangan ini diminati. Sterling berkinerja buruk, tergelincir ke 1.2731 karena PMI jasa Inggris meleset dan obligasi pemerintah Inggris berkinerja lebih baik. Mata uang Antipodean mendapat sedikit dorongan dari harga bijih besi yang lebih kuat. Volume tipis menjelang kalender yang padat data payrolls, dan sentimen risiko tetap konstruktif dengan futures ekuitas AS sedikit lebih tinggi dan indikator volatilitas tertahan di dekat level terendah siklus.

Pantauan hari ini

Level & Skenario

All eyes on the 12:30 GMT US initial jobless claims and the 14:00 ISM services print — a soft services number would cement the market's dovish lean and could push EUR/USD toward 1.0880. The bigger event sits 24 hours out with Friday's nonfarm payrolls, so expect position-squaring into the London fix. Gold bulls will defend 2,400 as pivot support; a close above 2,420 opens 2,435. For EUR/USD, 1.0855 is the immediate resistance shelf, with 1.0810 the line bears must break to regain control. Watch DXY 104.00 — a decisive break flips the near-term bias outright bearish for the greenback. JPY crosses remain the intervention wildcard; stay nimble above 152.50.

Buka edisi #248 Dengan tabel level lengkap

Kalender hari ini

GMT
12:30

Initial Jobless Claims

USDMediumf/c 232K · sebelumnya 235K
14:00

ISM Services PMI

USDHighf/c 51.4 · sebelumnya 50.8

Selanjutnya

Minggu ini
12:30

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Thu 6 AugUSDHigh
12:30

Average Hourly Earnings

Thu 6 AugUSDHigh
11:00

Keputusan Suku Bunga BoE

Fri 7 AugGBPHigh
12:30

Core CPI (m/m)

Wed 12 AugUSDHigh
Kalender lengkap, dijelaskan

Papan Kurs

Ilustratif
EUR/USD1.0842+0.18%
GBP/USD1.2731-0.09%
USD/JPY152.36+0.24%
USD/CHF0.8804-0.11%
AUD/USD0.6612+0.21%
USD/CAD1.3684-0.14%

Imbal hasil

Chg Hari
US 2-year4.02%-2bp
US 10-year4.31%+3bp
US 10-year real1.86%-2bp
Germany 10-year2.41%+1bp
Buka dasbor suku bunga

Level Kunci yang Aktif Hari Ini

Support · Pivot · Resistansi — ilustratif
InstrumenSupportPivotResistansiBias Redaksi
EUR/USD1.08101.08381.0855Bullish
XAU/USD2,4002,4102,435Bullish
GBP/USD1.27001.27351.2775Neutral
USD/JPY151.90152.30152.60Neutral

Analisis berdasarkan pasangan

Semua analisis
PasanganBiasLevel Kunci (S / P / R)Bacaan TerbaruDiperbarui
EUR/USDNeutral1.1511 / 1.1578 / 1.1722EUR/USD: Bias Netral karena Harga Bertahan Dekat Pivot 1.1578
GBP/USDNeutral1.3423 / 1.3483 / 1.3683GBP/USD: Bias Netral karena Harga Bertahan di Pivot 1.3483
XAU/USDBullish4036 / 4394 / 4407XAU/USD: Harga Mendekati Level Tertinggi 20 Hari di 4,398.51 di Tengah Bias Bullish

Edisi terbaru

Arsip lengkap
#247

Risiko stabil saat imbal hasil berkonsolidasi; emas berkoil di bawah 2,410.

Sesi Senin yang tenang membuat pasangan mata uang utama bergerak dalam kisaran terbatas karena para trader bersiap untuk minggu yang padat data.

#246

Efek samping payrolls: permintaan dollar memudar menjelang gap akhir pekan

Laporan pekerjaan hari Jumat yang beragam menyebabkan greenback rentan saat Agustus dibuka.

#245

Euro menguat karena inflasi inti bertahan; gold mengincar perebutan kembali 2,400

CPI Eropa yang lebih panas memangkas taruhan pemotongan ECB dan memberikan EUR/USD dorongan fundamental.

#244

Agustus dibuka dengan dolar yang menguat seiring aliran akhir bulan mereda

Dolar AS merebut kembali posisi di tengah permintaan rebalancing; emas tergelincir dari level tertingginya.

Dari meja analisis

Struktur, Skenario, Invalidasi
EUR/USD

EUR/USD: Bias Netral karena Harga Bertahan Dekat Pivot 1.1578

EUR/USD ditutup pada 1.1578, mencerminkan perubahan harian sebesar -0.10%, dengan bias terhitung tetap Netral.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD: Bias Netral karena Harga Bertahan di Pivot 1.3483

GBP/USD menunjukkan bias netral yang terhitung, dengan harga diperdagangkan di dekat pivot harian dan rata-rata pergerakan 50-hari.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD: Menguji 1.3626 Pivot di Tengah Bias Bullish

GBP/USD ditutup pada 1.3626, kenaikan +0.52%, memposisikan diri dekat level tertinggi 20 hari dan resistance kunci.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD: Bias Bullish karena Harga Bertahan di Atas Pivot 1.1681

EUR/USD ditutup pada 1.1681, menunjukkan kenaikan harian +0.65%, dengan indikator momentum mengindikasikan tekanan naik yang berkelanjutan.

XAU/USD

XAU/USD: Harga Mendekati Level Tertinggi 20 Hari di 4,398.51 di Tengah Bias Bullish

XAU/USD mempertahankan bias Bullish terhitung meskipun terjadi penurunan harian minor, mendekati resistance kunci.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD bergerak terbatas di bawah 1.0840 seiring meningkatnya *repricing* ECB.

Inflasi inti yang persisten dan dolar yang melemah membuat mata uang tunggal menekan level resistensi yang kuat.

XAU/USD

Emas menembus menuju 2,435 seiring imbal hasil riil mereda.

Dolar yang melemah dan imbal hasil riil yang menurun telah mendorong XAU/USD keluar dari pola *consolidation flag*-nya.

GBP/USD

Cable tertahan di 1.2775 menjelang BoE.

Sterling terjebak di antara dolar yang melemah dan gejolak data domestik menjelang Bank of England.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD skenario *payrolls*: dua skenario untuk Jumat.

Bagaimana mata uang tunggal kemungkinan bereaksi terhadap laporan pekerjaan AS yang kuat versus yang lemah.

XAU/USD

Gold: the 2,380 line that defines the uptrend

Satu level memisahkan pullback yang sehat dari perubahan tren pada XAU/USD.

Kalender minggu ini

Setiap rilis dijelaskan
TanggalWaktuMata UangRilisDampakPrakiraanSebelumnya
USDInitial Jobless ClaimsMedium232K235K
USDISM Services PMIHigh51.450.8
USDNonfarm Payrolls (NFP)High175K206K
USDAverage Hourly EarningsHigh0.3% m/m0.4% m/m
GBPKeputusan Suku Bunga BoEHighHoldHold
USDCore CPI (m/m)High0.3%0.3%
Semua yang ada di sini dapat dilacak ke penerbit resmi. Meja ini bekerja dari halaman primer yang sama yang dapat Anda buka sendiri: Situasi Ketenagakerjaan BLS untuk pekerjaan, Seri FRED Treasury 10-tahun untuk imbal hasil, Kurs referensi ECB untuk penetapan euro, dan Survei Triennial BIS untuk struktur pasar. Harga di halaman ini ilustratif; sumbernya tidak.