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Edición #246 · El informe matinal

Resaca de nóminas: la oferta por el dólar se desvanece antes de la brecha del fin de semana.

El informe de empleo mixto del viernes deja al dólar con un punto débil al inicio de agosto.

Monday, 3 August 2026·3 min Leer·5 artículos·Por el Redacción de piphawk.com
01Payrolls

Friday's jobs report was strong enough to confuse, not enough to convince

The headline beat and the market sold the dollar anyway. The job gain came in above consensus, but average hourly earnings cooled and the unemployment rate ticked up — the combination that lets both camps claim the print. The greenback's initial pop faded within the hour, and by the weekend gap the DXY had given back most of it. Markets still price September as the base case for the first cut.

Por qué importa

When a beat cannot hold a dollar rally, the underlying flow is one-directional. That tells you more about positioning than any single data point.

02EUR/USD

1.0790 held, and that is the whole story

Euro-dollar defended its payrolls low and crept back to 1.0815. The shelf at 1.0790 absorbed the post-data selling without a clean break, and European desks bought the retest as they came online. Converting 1.0815 into support is the next task; failure re-exposes 1.0790, and beneath that the month-end low at 1.0745 is the only structure left.

Por qué importa

Failed breakdowns on event days tend to run further than the original move, because they trap the crowd that faded the level in the first place.

The two-scenario payrolls playbook
03Yen

152.70 was rejected hard, and the wick is the message

USD/JPY spiked on the data and was dragged back 70 pips inside an hour. The pair printed 152.70 on the headline beat before intervention chatter — not confirmed action, just chatter — pulled it back to 152.00. The resulting 1-hour candle left a long upper wick just below the assumed official line. Nothing was spent, and the market retreated anyway.

Por qué importa

The Ministry of Finance is now getting the price action it wants without touching reserves. That is a cheaper and more durable ceiling than any actual intervention.

04Gold

Whipsawed to 2,398, but 2,380 never broke

Gold's payrolls session was violent and ultimately inconclusive. The metal swung through a wide range on the release before settling near 2,398, having defended the psychological 2,380 floor at the lows. Reclaiming 2,405 would confirm dip-buyers remain in charge; losing 2,380 on a daily close would puncture the higher-low sequence that has defined the trend since June.

Por qué importa

Gold surviving a hawkish data surprise without breaking structure is the strongest evidence the real-yield trade still has legs.

05Positioning

August opens with the dollar on the back foot

The month begins with a soft underbelly under the greenback. Risk appetite is constructive but unconvinced: equity futures firm, credit steady, volatility gauges pinned near cycle lows. Sterling clings to 1.2760 on hawkish BoE repricing, and the euro has a fundamental tailwind from sticky core inflation. The week ahead is light until Wednesday, then relentless.

Por qué importa

Low volatility plus one-directional positioning is how sharp reversals get built. The setup is comfortable, which is exactly when it is worth checking your stops.

La sesión nocturna

Asia → Europa temprana

The weekend gap opened quietly, but the residual theme from Friday's payrolls print dominated early flows. The headline job gain beat, yet a cooler wage number and an uptick in the unemployment rate muddied the picture, leaving the dollar's post-data pop looking fragile. EUR/USD held the 1.0790 shelf and crept back toward 1.0815 as European desks came online. Gold, which whipsawed violently on the release, stabilised near 2,398 having defended the psychological 2,380 floor. The US 10-year settled at 4.30% after its knee-jerk spike, with markets still pricing a September cut as the base case. USD/JPY was the session's most volatile major, spiking to 152.70 before intervention chatter dragged it back to 152.00. Sterling clung to 1.2760, supported by hawkish BoE repricing. Risk appetite was constructive but unconvinced — equity futures firm, credit steady, and the VIX pinned low. The market's message: Friday's data was not clean enough to derail the easing narrative, and the dollar enters August on the back foot.

Vigilancia de hoy

Escenarios e invalidación

Una vez digeridos los titulares del fin de semana, la atención se centra en si el EUR/USD puede convertir 1.0815 en soporte y avanzar hacia 1.0838. Un fallo aquí reexpone 1.0790. La reacción del oro alrededor de 2,398 es instructiva — recuperar 2,405 señalaría que los compradores de caídas siguen teniendo el control, mientras que una ruptura de 2,380 cambiaría el impulso a bajista. La banda de intervención del USD/JPY por encima de 152.50 sigue siendo el comodín clave para todo el complejo del G10. Esperen una apertura europea lenta que se convertirá en una tarde estadounidense más animada a medida que las mesas se posicionan para el ISM de la semana y los discursos de los bancos centrales.

Niveles clave

Ilustrativo
InstrumentoSoportePivoteResistenciaSesgo
EUR/USD1.07901.08081.0838Bullish
XAU/USD2,3802,3982,420Neutral
GBP/USD1.27301.27601.2800Bullish
USD/JPY151.80152.20152.70Neutral
Esquema de acción del precio
USD/JPY 1H: el repunte de nóminas hasta 152.70 fue fuertemente desvanecido hasta 152.00, imprimiendo una mecha de rechazo bajista justo por debajo de la línea de intervención asumida.

En el calendario

Calendario completo
12:30

Solicitudes iniciales de desempleo

USDMediumf/c 232K · anterior 235K

Un recuento semanal de nuevas solicitudes de subsidio por desempleo. Menos solicitudes señalan un mercado laboral ajustado y apoyan al dólar; un aumento alimenta las apuestas de recortes de tasas.

14:00

ISM Services PMI

USDHighf/c 51.4 · anterior 50.8

Una encuesta a los gerentes de compras en el dominante sector de servicios de EE. UU. Por encima de 50 significa expansión. Una lectura débil refuerza la narrativa de flexibilización y presiona al dólar.

12:30

Nóminas no agrícolas (NFP)

USDHighf/c 175K · anterior 206K

La cifra principal de empleo de EE. UU. — la publicación estrella del mes. Establece el tono para las expectativas de la Fed y puede mover cada par principal, el oro y los rendimientos en segundos.

← Número #245El euro se fortalece mientras la inflación subyacente se mantiene; el oro apunta a recuperar 2,400.Edición #247 →El riesgo se estabiliza mientras los rendimientos se consolidan; el oro se comprime por debajo de 2,410.
Cómo leer este número. Cada punto numerado es independiente: lea el encabezado en negrita, la línea “por qué importa” y pare ahí si es todo lo que necesita. La narrativa nocturna y la tabla de niveles a continuación son para una visión completa. Cada cifra es ilustrativa y se fija al momento de la publicación.