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CintaEUR/USD1.0842+0.18%GBP/USD1.2731-0.09%USD/JPY152.36+0.24%XAU/USD2,412.60+0.61%DXY104.28-0.14%US10Y4.31%+3bpWTI78.42-0.53%BTC/USD61,180+1.42%Instantánea ilustrativa ·
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Edición #245 · El informe matinal

El euro se fortalece mientras la inflación subyacente se mantiene; el oro apunta a recuperar 2,400.

Un IPC europeo más alto recorta las apuestas de recortes del BCE y proporciona un viento de cola fundamental al EUR/USD.

01Inflation

Eurozone core CPI came in hot and the ECB doves went quiet

Sticky core inflation is doing the heavy lifting for the single currency. Thursday's flash eurozone print landed above consensus, and the core measure — the one the Governing Council actually watches — proved stickier than the easing camp had assumed. Markets promptly trimmed the pace of ECB cuts penciled in for the rest of the year, narrowing the rate differential that had capped EUR/USD through late July.

Por qué importa

This is the first genuinely fundamental euro tailwind in a month. Technical rallies fail; repricing rallies tend to stick.

02EUR/USD

1.0800 is either a launchpad or a ceiling by tonight

Euro-dollar lifted off 1.0765 and stopped dead at the handle. The pair traded up to 1.0800 on the CPI repricing and has been unable to convert it into support. A push through 1.0820 opens 1.0840 and validates the move; slipping back under 1.0785 hands the initiative straight back to dollar bulls. The daily candle printed a bullish engulfing off 1.0765, which is the constructive read.

Por qué importa

Round numbers are where repricing rallies get tested. If the CPI story is real, 1.0800 becomes the floor within two sessions.

03Gold

The 2,400 tug-of-war is the intraday chart to watch

Gold clawed back toward the handle and stalled short of a clean reclaim. A softer dollar and steady haven flows lifted the metal off its lows, but it could not close the reclaim of 2,400. A decisive break targets 2,415; rejection risks a fade to 2,382. The swing factor is US yields — any climb above 4.35% on the 10-year caps both gold and the euro quickly.

Por qué importa

Gold and EUR/USD are currently trading the same variable from two directions. Doubling up on both is one position, not two.

04Rates

US yields are the ceiling on everything right now

The 10-year at 4.32% is cushioning dollar losses even as the data softens. Resilient Treasury yields have kept the DXY's slide to 104.60 orderly rather than disorderly. The front end has moved on labour data, but the long end has not followed, which leaves the curve doing very little. Until the 10-year breaks 4.25% convincingly, dollar downside stays capped.

Por qué importa

Watching only the dollar index misses half the picture. The yield that decides your EUR/USD trade is on a screen most FX traders never open.

Yields and policy rates, in one table
05Crosses

Sterling tracked the euro, the Aussie did not

Cable lifted to 1.2775 on nothing more than euro strength. GBP/USD shrugged off a soft domestic data point and rode the single currency higher, a reminder that on inflation-driven sessions the euro leads the European complex. The Aussie lagged on renewed China growth concerns while the loonie firmed with crude. The correlation map is behaving exactly as the textbook says it should.

Por qué importa

When cable is following the euro rather than its own data, UK releases are noise until the Bank of England prints.

La sesión nocturna

Asia → Europa temprana

The euro found a bid overnight after Thursday's flash eurozone CPI came in a touch above consensus, with the core measure proving stickier than the doves had hoped. EUR/USD lifted off 1.0765 to trade 1.0800 as markets pared expectations for the pace of ECB easing into year-end. The DXY eased to 104.60 in sympathy, though dollar losses were cushioned by resilient US yields, with the 10-year holding 4.32%. Gold clawed back toward the 2,400 handle, drawing support from the softer dollar and steady haven flows, though it stalled short of a clean reclaim. USD/JPY drifted to 152.30 as the rate gap kept the carry trade attractive despite official warnings. Sterling tracked the euro higher to 1.2775, shrugging off a soft UK data point. Commodity currencies were mixed; the Aussie lagged on China growth concerns while the loonie firmed with crude. The overnight signal was cleanly fundamental: sticky European inflation is doing the heavy lifting for the single currency.

Vigilancia de hoy

Escenarios e invalidación

The euro's fate today hinges on whether 1.0800 becomes a launchpad or a ceiling. A push through 1.0820 opens 1.0840 and validates the CPI-driven repricing; slipping back under 1.0785 hands the initiative back to dollar bulls. Gold's tug-of-war around 2,400 is the standout intraday chart — a decisive reclaim targets 2,415, while rejection risks a fade to 2,382. Watch US yields: any renewed climb above 4.35% on the 10-year would cap both EUR/USD and gold quickly. Sterling looks constructive above 1.2760 but needs the euro to lead.

Niveles clave

Ilustrativo
InstrumentoSoportePivoteResistenciaSesgo
EUR/USD1.07851.08001.0840Bullish
XAU/USD2,3822,4002,415Neutral
GBP/USD1.27601.27751.2810Bullish
USD/JPY152.00152.30152.70Neutral
Esquema de acción del precio
EUR/USD diario: una vela envolvente alcista desde 1.0765 tras el IPC persistente de la eurozona vuelve a poner el máximo de oscilación de 1.0840 en el punto de mira.

En el calendario

Calendario completo
12:30

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14:00

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12:30

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La cifra principal de empleo de EE. UU. — la publicación estrella del mes. Establece el tono para las expectativas de la Fed y puede mover cada par principal, el oro y los rendimientos en segundos.

Cómo leer este número. Cada punto numerado es independiente: lea el encabezado en negrita, la línea “por qué importa” y pare ahí si es todo lo que necesita. La narrativa nocturna y la tabla de niveles a continuación son para una visión completa. Cada cifra es ilustrativa y se fija al momento de la publicación.