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Edición #247 · El informe matinal

El riesgo se estabiliza mientras los rendimientos se consolidan; el oro se comprime por debajo de 2,410.

Una sesión tranquila de lunes mantiene a los principales pares en un rango mientras los operadores se preparan para una semana cargada de datos.

Tuesday, 4 August 2026·3 min Leer·5 artículos·Por el Redacción de piphawk.com
01Tape

A Monday with nothing in it, and the ranges show it

EUR/USD spent the session inside 25 pips. The pair oscillated between 1.0805 and 1.0830 without ever threatening either boundary, and the DXY held 104.40 in the kind of flat print you only get when the calendar is empty. Treasury yields consolidated Friday's move with the 10-year anchored at 4.28% and the curve unchanged. This was a session about waiting, not about direction.

Por qué importa

Compressed ranges before a data-heavy week are not neutral — they are stored energy. Wednesday's ADP and Friday's payrolls will spend it.

02Gold

The coil under 2,410 is the chart of the week

Gold is winding into a flag, and flags resolve with the trend. The metal spent another session digesting last week's rally, refusing to break 2,410 but equally refusing to give up 2,392. Each daily range has been narrower than the last for four sessions — the classic pre-breakout compression. The 50-day moving average is rising through the low 2,350s and reinforces the zone beneath.

Por qué importa

Consolidation this tight rarely lasts more than a week. Whichever side breaks gets a fast 25-dollar move because the stops are stacked immediately beyond both boundaries.

The 2,380 line explained
03Sterling

Cable is quietly offered into the Bank of England

GBP/USD drifted to 1.2748 without a single UK headline to justify it. Sterling underperformed a broadly flat dollar, which is the market's way of pricing risk into Thursday's Bank of England decision before anyone commits to a view. Gilts outperformed Treasuries modestly. The 1.2700 floor has now held on three separate tests since mid-July, and 1.2775 caps the range on the other side.

Por qué importa

The BoE is the only G10 central bank with a genuinely two-sided outcome this month. Cable's range boundaries are where the whole decision gets expressed.

Cable's range, mapped
04Carry

USD/JPY nudged to 152.10 in Tokyo and nobody chased it

The carry bid is intact, the conviction is not. Thin Tokyo trade lifted the pair a handful of pips, and it stayed there. Rate differentials continue to reward the long, but intervention anxiety caps how much size desks will run into it. Watch 152.50 as the practical ceiling and 151.60 as the level that would signal the carry unwind has actually started.

Por qué importa

A carry trade that stops going up while nothing has changed fundamentally is usually the first sign positioning is full.

05Week ahead

Three prints reshape the rate narrative by Friday

The calendar goes from empty to unmanageable in 72 hours. ADP lands Wednesday, jobless claims and ISM services on Thursday, and nonfarm payrolls plus average hourly earnings on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Consensus has payrolls at 175K against 206K prior, with wages at 0.3% m/m. The Bank of England sits in the middle of it on Thursday at 11:00.

Por qué importa

Four high-impact releases inside three sessions means any technical level you rely on today has a short shelf life. Size accordingly.

Every release, with what it measures

La sesión nocturna

Asia → Europa temprana

Currency markets traded with a cautious, range-bound tone overnight as the new week opened without fresh catalysts. EUR/USD oscillated in a tight 1.0805–1.0830 band, unable to build on Friday's bounce as the DXY steadied around 104.40. US Treasury yields consolidated Friday's move, with the 10-year anchored near 4.28% and the curve little changed. Gold coiled just beneath 2,410, digesting last week's rally as buyers waited for a cleaner catalyst. USD/JPY nudged up to 152.10 in thin Tokyo trade, the carry bid intact but capped by intervention anxiety. Sterling was quietly offered, drifting to 1.2748 ahead of the Bank of England later in the week. The Antipodeans lagged as Chinese equities opened soft and industrial-metals sentiment wobbled. Oil slipped half a percent on demand jitters. Overall it was a classic pre-data Monday: low conviction, compressed ranges, and a market unwilling to commit capital before Wednesday's ADP and Friday's payrolls reshape the rate narrative.

Vigilancia de hoy

Escenarios e invalidación

La agenda de hoy es ligera, por lo que la acción del precio estará impulsada por factores técnicos y será sensible a la liquidez. El EUR/USD necesita superar 1.0838 para atraer compradores de impulso; un fallo mantiene 1.0805 en juego como suelo pivote. La consolidación del oro por debajo de 2,410 es el gráfico a observar — una ruptura apunta a 2,430, mientras que una caída por debajo de 2,392 neutralizaría la estructura alcista. Los traders de la libra esterlina deberían tener en cuenta el soporte de 1.2720 de cara al BoE. Con el calendario vacío, esperen movimientos erráticos impulsados por titulares y una profundidad menor de lo habitual; mantengan un tamaño modesto y dejen que las rupturas de nivel se confirmen antes de perseguir.

Niveles clave

Ilustrativo
InstrumentoSoportePivoteResistenciaSesgo
EUR/USD1.08051.08201.0838Neutral
XAU/USD2,3922,4052,430Bullish
GBP/USD1.27201.27481.2790Neutral
USD/JPY151.60152.05152.50Bullish
Esquema de acción del precio
XAU/USD diario: el oro se consolida en un banderín de contracción por debajo de 2,410 tras la ruptura de la semana pasada — una consolidación que típicamente se resuelve a favor de la tendencia predominante.

En el calendario

Calendario completo
12:30

Solicitudes iniciales de desempleo

USDMediumf/c 232K · anterior 235K

Un recuento semanal de nuevas solicitudes de subsidio por desempleo. Menos solicitudes señalan un mercado laboral ajustado y apoyan al dólar; un aumento alimenta las apuestas de recortes de tasas.

14:00

ISM Services PMI

USDHighf/c 51.4 · anterior 50.8

Una encuesta a los gerentes de compras en el dominante sector de servicios de EE. UU. Por encima de 50 significa expansión. Una lectura débil refuerza la narrativa de flexibilización y presiona al dólar.

12:30

Nóminas no agrícolas (NFP)

USDHighf/c 175K · anterior 206K

La cifra principal de empleo de EE. UU. — la publicación estrella del mes. Establece el tono para las expectativas de la Fed y puede mover cada par principal, el oro y los rendimientos en segundos.

← Número #246Resaca de nóminas: la oferta por el dólar se desvanece antes de la brecha del fin de semana.Edición #248 →El dólar se debilita mientras las solicitudes de subsidio por desempleo enfrían el debate sobre recortes de tasas.
Cómo leer este número. Cada punto numerado es independiente: lea el encabezado en negrita, la línea “por qué importa” y pare ahí si es todo lo que necesita. La narrativa nocturna y la tabla de niveles a continuación son para una visión completa. Cada cifra es ilustrativa y se fija al momento de la publicación.