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CintaEUR/USD1.0842+0.18%GBP/USD1.2731-0.09%USD/JPY152.36+0.24%XAU/USD2,412.60+0.61%DXY104.28-0.14%US10Y4.31%+3bpWTI78.42-0.53%BTC/USD61,180+1.42%Instantánea ilustrativa ·
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Edición #244 · El informe matinal

Agosto comienza con un dólar más firme a medida que los flujos de fin de mes se revierten.

El billete verde recupera terreno por la demanda de reequilibrio; el oro cae desde sus máximos.

Saturday, 1 August 2026·3 min Leer·5 artículos·Por el Redacción de piphawk.com
01Flows

Month-end rebalancing flipped, and the dollar got its bounce

August opened with the greenback on the front foot for mechanical reasons. The rebalancing flows that weighed on the dollar through late July reversed with the calendar turn, and European accounts trimmed euro longs into the new month. EUR/USD slipped from 1.0810 to test 1.0770, and the DXY firmed to 104.90, recovering the 105 pivot zone it had ceded during the July slide.

Por qué importa

Flow-driven moves are not signals. Treating a month-end reversal as a trend change is one of the most reliable ways retail money gets caught offside in the first week of a month.

02EUR/USD

1.0770 is the line between a pullback and an unwind

Euro bulls have one level to defend before this gets structural. A break of 1.0770 exposes 1.0745 and a deeper positioning unwind; reclaiming 1.0800 would confirm the pullback is corrective rather than the start of a trend. The pair enters the week's data run mid-structure, which is the least useful place to be holding a directional view.

Por qué importa

With payrolls four sessions away, the market that resolves this level will likely do it on a data print rather than on flow.

03Gold

2,380 is where the medium-term uptrend lives or dies

Gold eased to 2,388 on the firmer dollar, and dip-buyers held the line. A modest back-up in real yields pressured the metal off its late-July highs, but the 2,380 floor — the most recent higher low in a sequence stretching back to June — was never seriously threatened. Above, 2,405 is the reclaim level that would flip the near-term bias back to the bulls.

Por qué importa

One number decides whether the last six weeks were a trend or a range. Everything else on the gold chart is commentary.

The full gold structure read
04Yen

152.45 tested the market's tolerance for official pushback

USD/JPY pushed to the top of its range and paused. The pair probed 152.45 as the dollar broadly advanced, edging toward the zone where the Ministry of Finance has historically become vocal. Rate differentials still support the pair, but the risk-reward on fresh longs deteriorates sharply above 152.50.

Por qué importa

Carry trades pay steadily and lose catastrophically. Proximity to an intervention band is the point at which that asymmetry stops being theoretical.

05Set-up

Consolidation, not conviction — and that is fine

This was a technical, flow-driven session that reset positioning. Sterling was heavy at 1.2740, the DXY reclaimed 104.60 with a higher low, and nothing in the tape suggested anyone had a strong view. July's dollar weakness has been partially unwound, which leaves a cleaner base for the data-heavy days ahead. Ranges should compress further into midweek.

Por qué importa

A reset positioning picture before a big data week is the closest thing markets offer to a fair starting price. It is a good week to have no legacy exposure.

La sesión nocturna

Asia → Europa temprana

The dollar opened August on the front foot as month-end rebalancing flows that had weighed on the greenback in late July reversed. EUR/USD slipped from 1.0810 to test 1.0770 as European accounts trimmed euro longs into the new month. The DXY firmed to 104.90, recovering the 105 pivot zone it had ceded during the July slide. US yields ticked higher, the 10-year nudging to 4.34% as traders positioned cautiously ahead of the week's payrolls. Gold eased from its recent highs to 2,388, pressured by the firmer dollar and a modest back-up in real yields, though dip-buyers kept it above 2,380. USD/JPY pushed to 152.45, testing the upper end of its recent range and the market's tolerance for official pushback. Sterling was heavy at 1.2740 as the dollar broadly advanced. The tone was one of consolidation rather than conviction — a technical, flow-driven session that reset positioning after July's dollar weakness and set a cleaner base for the data-heavy days ahead.

Vigilancia de hoy

Escenarios e invalidación

Hoy se trata de si el rebote del dólar tiene fuerza o se desvanece a medida que desaparecen las distorsiones de fin de mes. Los alcistas del EUR/USD deben defender 1.0770; una ruptura expone 1.0745 y un retroceso más profundo. Recuperar 1.0800 señalaría que el retroceso es correctivo, no el inicio de una tendencia. El suelo de 2,380 del oro es la línea clave: manténgalo y la tendencia alcista a medio plazo se mantiene intacta; piérdalo y 2,360 se vislumbra. El coqueteo del USD/JPY con 152.50 mantiene elevado el riesgo de intervención, así que trate las nuevas posiciones largas con cautela. Con las nóminas acercándose a finales de semana, espere que los rangos se compriman y la convicción se mantenga baja.

Niveles clave

Ilustrativo
InstrumentoSoportePivoteResistenciaSesgo
EUR/USD1.07451.07851.0810Bearish
XAU/USD2,3602,3852,405Neutral
GBP/USD1.27101.27451.2785Bearish
USD/JPY152.00152.30152.55Bullish
Esquema de acción del precio
DXY 4H: el índice del dólar recupera el pivote de 104.60 por flujos de fin de mes, registrando un mínimo más alto que los alcistas defenderán hasta los payrolls.

En el calendario

Calendario completo
12:30

Solicitudes iniciales de desempleo

USDMediumf/c 232K · anterior 235K

Un recuento semanal de nuevas solicitudes de subsidio por desempleo. Menos solicitudes señalan un mercado laboral ajustado y apoyan al dólar; un aumento alimenta las apuestas de recortes de tasas.

14:00

ISM Services PMI

USDHighf/c 51.4 · anterior 50.8

Una encuesta a los gerentes de compras en el dominante sector de servicios de EE. UU. Por encima de 50 significa expansión. Una lectura débil refuerza la narrativa de flexibilización y presiona al dólar.

12:30

Nóminas no agrícolas (NFP)

USDHighf/c 175K · anterior 206K

La cifra principal de empleo de EE. UU. — la publicación estrella del mes. Establece el tono para las expectativas de la Fed y puede mover cada par principal, el oro y los rendimientos en segundos.

← AnteriorEsta es la edición más antigua en línea
Edición #245 →El euro se fortalece mientras la inflación subyacente se mantiene; el oro apunta a recuperar 2,400.
Cómo leer este número. Cada punto numerado es independiente: lea el encabezado en negrita, la línea “por qué importa” y pare ahí si es todo lo que necesita. La narrativa nocturna y la tabla de niveles a continuación son para una visión completa. Cada cifra es ilustrativa y se fija al momento de la publicación.