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RekamanEUR/USD1.0842+0.18%GBP/USD1.2731-0.09%USD/JPY152.36+0.24%XAU/USD2,412.60+0.61%DXY104.28-0.14%US10Y4.31%+3bpWTI78.42-0.53%BTC/USD61,180+1.42%Snapshot ilustratif ·
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Edisi #248Berlangganan Gratis
Beranda/Edisi/#248
Edisi #248 · Briefing pagi

Dolar melemah karena klaim pengangguran meredakan perdebatan pemotongan suku bunga.

EUR/USD merebut kembali 1.0840; emas menekan level tertinggi baru tiga minggu sebelum banjir data AS.

Wednesday, 5 August 2026·4 menit baca·5 item·Oleh Tim piphawk.com
01Dollar

The greenback is losing the argument one data point at a time

The dollar has now given back every cent of its month-end bounce. DXY printed 104.28 overnight, the weakest level since 16 July, after Wednesday's soft ADP number pulled the front end of the curve lower for a third straight session. There was no single dramatic release behind the move — it is the accumulation of second-tier labour data landing on the cool side of consensus that has done the damage. Rates desks now put roughly three-in-four odds on a September cut, up from just over half a fortnight ago.

Mengapa penting

A dollar index below 104.00 removes the last technical prop under EUR/USD and gold at the same time. Two of the three charts most retail traders watch are keyed off the same line.

See the full rates dashboard
02EUR/USD

1.0855 is the only number that matters today

Euro-dollar has reclaimed the pivot but not the ceiling. Price ground back above 1.0840 in the European morning, undoing Monday's slide and clearing the descending trendline drawn off the mid-July high. The 4-hour RSI sits in the mid-60s with room left, and the MACD histogram flipped positive on Tuesday. What the pair has not done is take out 1.0855, the shelf that has capped every rally since June. Bulls need a close through it; bears need 1.0810 back.

Mengapa penting

Between 1.0810 and 1.0855 there is no edge, only noise. The break decides whether the July range resolves into a 1.0880 measured move or another two weeks of chop.

Full EUR/USD technical read
03Gold

Gold is the cleanest expression of the rate-cut trade

XAU/USD at 2,412 is a three-week high, and it got there without drama. The metal broke the 2,410 flag ceiling on Tuesday and has held above it since, with 2,400 flipping from resistance to pivot support in the textbook role reversal. Easing US real yields have done most of the lifting; a steady drip of Middle East headlines has supplied the rest. The measured move off the flag projects 2,435, with 2,450 the next psychological magnet.

Mengapa penting

Gold usually leads the FX complex when the driver is real yields rather than growth. If the metal holds 2,400 through payrolls, the dollar-bear thesis survives a hot print.

Why 2,435 is the objective
04Yen

The intervention band is doing the Bank of Japan's work for it

USD/JPY sat at 152.36 all session and nobody wanted to find out what is above 152.50. The rate differential still argues for a higher pair, and carry flows have not gone away. But desks have quietly cut position sizes in the last fortnight, and the order book above 152.50 is thin because nobody wants to be the leveraged long that gets run over by the Ministry of Finance. That self-policing is why the pair has traded a 60-pip range for four sessions.

Mengapa penting

A yen intervention does not stay in the yen. The last two episodes dragged every dollar cross with them for 48 hours, which is a risk to your EUR/USD position even if you never trade JPY.

05The day

ISM services at 14:00 GMT is the last read before payrolls

Two US releases stand between the market and Friday's jobs report. Initial jobless claims land at 12:30 GMT with consensus at 232K, and ISM services follows at 14:00 with 51.4 expected against 50.8 prior. Services is the one that carries: it is the dominant sector of the US economy and the survey's employment sub-index has become a de facto payrolls preview. Expect position-squaring into the London fix regardless of the numbers.

Mengapa penting

A soft services print cements the dovish lean and hands EUR/USD the 1.0880 objective before the weekend. A hot one resets the whole week's repricing in an afternoon.

Today's calendar in plain English

Sesi semalam

Asia → Awal Eropa

Dolar bergerak lebih rendah sepanjang sesi Asia dan awal Eropa karena data ADP hari Rabu yang lemah terus membebani imbal hasil jangka pendek. EUR/USD kembali naik di atas 1.0840, memulihkan kerugian hari Senin, sementara DXY tergelincir ke 104.28 — level terlemahnya sejak pertengahan Juli. Emas menjadi yang paling menonjol, memperpanjang kenaikannya ke 2,412 karena imbal hasil riil mereda dan permintaan safe-haven meningkat menyusul berita utama Timur Tengah yang baru. US 10-year bergerak di dekat 4.31%, sedikit berubah namun cenderung lebih rendah setelah penyesuaian harga dovish pada pertemuan September hari Selasa. USD/JPY bertahan kuat di 152.36, dengan para trader mewaspadai risiko intervensi di atas 152.50 meskipun perbedaan suku bunga membuat pasangan ini diminati. Sterling berkinerja buruk, tergelincir ke 1.2731 karena PMI jasa Inggris meleset dan obligasi pemerintah Inggris berkinerja lebih baik. Mata uang Antipodean mendapat sedikit dorongan dari harga bijih besi yang lebih kuat. Volume tipis menjelang kalender yang padat data payrolls, dan sentimen risiko tetap konstruktif dengan futures ekuitas AS sedikit lebih tinggi dan indikator volatilitas tertahan di dekat level terendah siklus.

Pantauan hari ini

Skenario & Invalidasi

All eyes on the 12:30 GMT US initial jobless claims and the 14:00 ISM services print — a soft services number would cement the market's dovish lean and could push EUR/USD toward 1.0880. The bigger event sits 24 hours out with Friday's nonfarm payrolls, so expect position-squaring into the London fix. Gold bulls will defend 2,400 as pivot support; a close above 2,420 opens 2,435. For EUR/USD, 1.0855 is the immediate resistance shelf, with 1.0810 the line bears must break to regain control. Watch DXY 104.00 — a decisive break flips the near-term bias outright bearish for the greenback. JPY crosses remain the intervention wildcard; stay nimble above 152.50.

Level Kunci

Ilustratif
InstrumenSupportPivotResistansiBias
EUR/USD1.08101.08381.0855Bullish
XAU/USD2,4002,4102,435Bullish
GBP/USD1.27001.27351.2775Neutral
USD/JPY151.90152.30152.60Neutral
Skema Price Action
EUR/USD 4H: harga merebut kembali pivot 1.0838 dan garis tren menurun dari level tertinggi Juli, dengan momentum yang meningkat menjelang ISM services.

Di kalender

Kalender lengkap
12:30

Initial Jobless Claims

USDMediumf/c 232K · sebelumnya 235K

Penghitungan mingguan klaim tunjangan pengangguran baru. Klaim yang lebih sedikit menandakan pasar tenaga kerja yang ketat dan mendukung dolar; kenaikan yang lebih tinggi memperkuat ekspektasi pemotongan suku bunga.

14:00

ISM Services PMI

USDHighf/c 51.4 · sebelumnya 50.8

Survei manajer pembelian di sektor jasa AS yang dominan. Di atas 50 berarti ekspansi. Pembacaan yang lemah memperkuat narasi pelonggaran dan menekan dolar.

← Edisi #247Risiko stabil saat imbal hasil berkonsolidasi; emas berkoil di bawah 2,410.
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