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Edisi #248Berlangganan Gratis
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Edisi #245 · Briefing pagi

Euro menguat karena inflasi inti bertahan; gold mengincar perebutan kembali 2,400

CPI Eropa yang lebih panas memangkas taruhan pemotongan ECB dan memberikan EUR/USD dorongan fundamental.

Sunday, 2 August 2026·3 menit baca·5 item·Oleh Tim piphawk.com
01Inflation

Eurozone core CPI came in hot and the ECB doves went quiet

Sticky core inflation is doing the heavy lifting for the single currency. Thursday's flash eurozone print landed above consensus, and the core measure — the one the Governing Council actually watches — proved stickier than the easing camp had assumed. Markets promptly trimmed the pace of ECB cuts penciled in for the rest of the year, narrowing the rate differential that had capped EUR/USD through late July.

Mengapa penting

This is the first genuinely fundamental euro tailwind in a month. Technical rallies fail; repricing rallies tend to stick.

02EUR/USD

1.0800 is either a launchpad or a ceiling by tonight

Euro-dollar lifted off 1.0765 and stopped dead at the handle. The pair traded up to 1.0800 on the CPI repricing and has been unable to convert it into support. A push through 1.0820 opens 1.0840 and validates the move; slipping back under 1.0785 hands the initiative straight back to dollar bulls. The daily candle printed a bullish engulfing off 1.0765, which is the constructive read.

Mengapa penting

Round numbers are where repricing rallies get tested. If the CPI story is real, 1.0800 becomes the floor within two sessions.

03Gold

The 2,400 tug-of-war is the intraday chart to watch

Gold clawed back toward the handle and stalled short of a clean reclaim. A softer dollar and steady haven flows lifted the metal off its lows, but it could not close the reclaim of 2,400. A decisive break targets 2,415; rejection risks a fade to 2,382. The swing factor is US yields — any climb above 4.35% on the 10-year caps both gold and the euro quickly.

Mengapa penting

Gold and EUR/USD are currently trading the same variable from two directions. Doubling up on both is one position, not two.

04Rates

US yields are the ceiling on everything right now

The 10-year at 4.32% is cushioning dollar losses even as the data softens. Resilient Treasury yields have kept the DXY's slide to 104.60 orderly rather than disorderly. The front end has moved on labour data, but the long end has not followed, which leaves the curve doing very little. Until the 10-year breaks 4.25% convincingly, dollar downside stays capped.

Mengapa penting

Watching only the dollar index misses half the picture. The yield that decides your EUR/USD trade is on a screen most FX traders never open.

Yields and policy rates, in one table
05Crosses

Sterling tracked the euro, the Aussie did not

Cable lifted to 1.2775 on nothing more than euro strength. GBP/USD shrugged off a soft domestic data point and rode the single currency higher, a reminder that on inflation-driven sessions the euro leads the European complex. The Aussie lagged on renewed China growth concerns while the loonie firmed with crude. The correlation map is behaving exactly as the textbook says it should.

Mengapa penting

When cable is following the euro rather than its own data, UK releases are noise until the Bank of England prints.

Sesi semalam

Asia → Awal Eropa

The euro found a bid overnight after Thursday's flash eurozone CPI came in a touch above consensus, with the core measure proving stickier than the doves had hoped. EUR/USD lifted off 1.0765 to trade 1.0800 as markets pared expectations for the pace of ECB easing into year-end. The DXY eased to 104.60 in sympathy, though dollar losses were cushioned by resilient US yields, with the 10-year holding 4.32%. Gold clawed back toward the 2,400 handle, drawing support from the softer dollar and steady haven flows, though it stalled short of a clean reclaim. USD/JPY drifted to 152.30 as the rate gap kept the carry trade attractive despite official warnings. Sterling tracked the euro higher to 1.2775, shrugging off a soft UK data point. Commodity currencies were mixed; the Aussie lagged on China growth concerns while the loonie firmed with crude. The overnight signal was cleanly fundamental: sticky European inflation is doing the heavy lifting for the single currency.

Pantauan hari ini

Skenario & Invalidasi

Nasib euro hari ini bergantung pada apakah 1.0800 menjadi landasan peluncuran atau batas atas. Dorongan melewati 1.0820 membuka jalan ke 1.0840 dan memvalidasi penyesuaian harga yang didorong oleh CPI; tergelincir kembali di bawah 1.0785 menyerahkan inisiatif kembali kepada 'dollar bulls'. Tarik-menarik emas di sekitar 2,400 adalah grafik intraday yang menonjol — perebutan kembali yang menentukan menargetkan 2,415, sementara penolakan berisiko memudar ke 2,382. Perhatikan imbal hasil AS: setiap kenaikan baru di atas 4.35% pada imbal hasil 10-tahun akan membatasi EUR/USD dan emas dengan cepat. Pound Sterling terlihat konstruktif di atas 1.2760 tetapi membutuhkan euro untuk memimpin.

Level Kunci

Ilustratif
InstrumenSupportPivotResistansiBias
EUR/USD1.07851.08001.0840Bullish
XAU/USD2,3822,4002,415Neutral
GBP/USD1.27601.27751.2810Bullish
USD/JPY152.00152.30152.70Neutral
Skema Price Action
EUR/USD harian: sebuah candle bullish engulfing dari 1.0765 di tengah CPI zona euro yang persisten menempatkan kembali level tertinggi ayunan 1.0840 menjadi fokus.

Di kalender

Kalender lengkap
12:30

Initial Jobless Claims

USDMediumf/c 232K · sebelumnya 235K

Penghitungan mingguan klaim tunjangan pengangguran baru. Klaim yang lebih sedikit menandakan pasar tenaga kerja yang ketat dan mendukung dolar; kenaikan yang lebih tinggi memperkuat ekspektasi pemotongan suku bunga.

14:00

ISM Services PMI

USDHighf/c 51.4 · sebelumnya 50.8

Survei manajer pembelian di sektor jasa AS yang dominan. Di atas 50 berarti ekspansi. Pembacaan yang lemah memperkuat narasi pelonggaran dan menekan dolar.

12:30

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

USDHighf/c 175K · sebelumnya 206K

Angka pekerjaan utama AS — rilis utama bulan ini. Ini menentukan nada untuk ekspektasi The Fed dan dapat menggerakkan setiap pasangan mata uang utama, emas, dan imbal hasil dalam hitungan detik.

← Edisi #244Agustus dibuka dengan dolar yang menguat seiring aliran akhir bulan meredaEdisi #246 →Efek samping payrolls: permintaan dollar memudar menjelang gap akhir pekan
Cara membaca edisi ini. Setiap item bernomor ditulis agar dapat berdiri sendiri — baca cepat bagian awal yang dicetak tebal, baca baris “mengapa ini penting”, dan berhenti di sana jika itu yang Anda butuhkan. Narasi semalam dan tabel level di bawah ini disediakan jika Anda menginginkan gambaran lengkap. Setiap angka bersifat ilustratif dan ditetapkan pada saat pengarsipan.